Sunday, October 26, 2008

Breakin Down the 08-09 Fantasy Season

A few notes before I get started: Most of the comments below assume players who are normally healthy, stay healthy. Random injuries (as opposed to reoccurring injuries) can always happen and will ruin your fantasy squad. Just remember to try and keep a Bench spot open so you can quickly grab the backup for your fantasy stud.

Also, I’m going to stick to reviewing Guards, Forwards, and Centers. If a player is eligible at multiple positions, then his value goes up. Since some leagues vary in eligibility, we’ll just stick to the basics and a do a 3 position summary. For each position, we’ll have the cream of the crop, bright spots, players I don’t think will do as good as projected, and some sleepers.

Last but not least, you’ll see at times I put a WW next to some players. It means I just don’t trust them for 82 games, and they should be monitored closely on the Waiver Wire. If they have 4 games the following week, you might to check their last 5-10 games and see if you should make use of the 4 games.

This was a lot harder than I thought I’d be. Next year I’ll get this out earlier.

Guards

Cream of the Crop

*Last year, CP3 had a very special Fantasy season and will have another great year.

*Kobe scored 81

*Dwayne Wade is back!

Bright spots

*Deron Williams would have been on the list above, but got hurt early and they’re sounding down about it in Utah

*Allen Iverson is in a contract year, should mean big things

*Jose Calderon might finish the year with better Fantasy value than anyone else on this (besides the top 3)

*Kevin Martin is a scoring machine

*I think Jason Richardson will either have a huge year, or do orrible under Larry Brown. I’m sticking with good for now

*Joe Johnson quietly will get his numbers

*Devin Harris will have the ball in his hands for almost 35 minutes a night. Big numbers

*J.Kidd is getting old, but he’s in a contract year and this will be one last shot with Dallas before he signs with a contender at a bargain.

Pessimistic

*This is a perfect year for Baron Davis to take off. New contract and not much to look forward to in L.A.

*Vince Carter (see: Davis, Baron)

*Terry Porter wants to slow the game down, so what is Steve Nash doing on the floor at all? He can’t guard anyone. He’ll still put up great numbers, but don’t expect last year’s assist totals.

*Chauncey won’t need to play as many minutes with Rodney Stuckey behind him in the lineup

*Mo Williams will have a good year, but not as good as most people thing stat-wise. He might hit a few more 3’s with LeBron dishing him the rock.

*I don’t think Brandon Roy will have a big year. That team is just so deep, and they’re need more defense from his position than scoring.

*Hinrich and Gordon might split time at the 2, too often to be very good fantasy players. WW

*Jameer Nelson just isn’t very good most of the time. He’ll get you excited one week, then let you down the next. WW

*Andre Miller is in a contract year, but the young Lou Williams is who the Sixers will want to grow with the Elton Brand. WW

Sleepers

*Nate Robinson is playing great for D’Antoni so far, but that backcourt is just weird and inconsistent. However once in a while Nate might get you three or four 3-points in a game, and score 18 points on good FG%

*Randy Foye will log a ton of minutes.

*TJ Ford, the new guy running the show in Indiana. He’s got the keys, so he’ll be driving often.

*Beno Udrih was great at the end of last season. He’s the Kings only PG. WW

*O.J Mayo might kill your FG%, but if you’re in a league where points count double, he’s the man.

*Once Ivo gets traded, JR Smith will come up huge. He might regardless, unless he goes back in Coach Karl’s doghouse. WW

Forwards

Cream of the Crop

*LeBron James does not seem human. When you’re watching football today, take a look at some of the linebackers and just think about how crazy it is that LeBron James is bigger than most. That’s incredible.

*Elton Brand is psyched to play for the Sixers and they needed him at that spot badly. Should be a perfect fit.

*K.G just does it fantasy-wise every single year. Don’t bet against KG. Anything is Possible!!!

Bright spots

*Carmelo, might challenge LeBron for the scoring title this year, but I worry that Denver might go into rebuilding mode went hey fall out of the playoff race. I also think Melo’s rebound numbers will go up a bunch now that Camby is out of town.

*Shawn Marion is in a contract year, and regardless of which team he’s playing on by season end, I suspect that he’ll want to play as hard as possible.

* Dirk will put up some big numbers wit J. Kidd finding him on open shots. He’ll get you great %’s and score around 19 points per game, adding at least one 3-pointer per game.

*Al Jefferson might be up there with the best, but his team might do so bad that they have him sit some time towards the end of the season to tank for another lottery pick.

*Micahel Redd, you know will give you best effort for the season, and that goes a long way in Fantasy.

*Chris Bosh will have a monster year, and might end up competing for the #1 Forward spot for Fantasy by the end of the season.

*Rudy Gay, with no exectations to win in Memphis, will have a monster season.

*Boozer is another one who is playing for a contract, and will be giving it his all every year.

*Rashard Lewis has openly said that this year he expects to be much more selfish with his shot selection and more aggressive to the basket.

*Ray Allen wil play sparingly until the playoffs.

*David West is going to have another monster year. That team is just too well constructed for motivation to be an issue, and Chris Paul takes up too much attention for West’s job to become difficult

*Don’t sleep on Timmy D. His going to put up big numbers with Manu out and hopefully continue that when Manu returns

*Pau Gasol will get even more familiar with the Triangle Offense, and will be helping on weak side D (since Bynum will defend the big post players on the other team), so expect blocks to go up, and easy buckets increasing his FG%

*Caron Butlers is a monster. If he stays healthy, he’ll be a top 15 Fantasy player overall.

*I expect Gerald Wallace to have a big year under Larry Brown. He’s a steal machine.

*Ron Artest…like everything with him, either bust, sleeper or star. No one, will know until the season is over.

*Kevin Durant, expect the same as last year, maybe 1 or 2 more points and 1 more rebound. Still FG% that could kill that category.

Pessimistic

*Josh Smith is going high on most fantasy boards, but his attitude worries me very much, especially fresh off a new contract. Also, his dislike for his head coach, might mean that he doesn’t play his hardest until there is a new sheriff in town.

*Danny Granger and Mke Dunleavy both are projected to have great fantasy years. Well, I don’t believe it.

*Paul Pierce will finally show some age, and play less minutes in favor of some of the young studs off the bench. The C’s know they can win a ring, and so they’re not going to be trying to prove that every game this year, like they did last year.

*Corey Maggette / Stephen Jackson combo. I think they’ll hurt each other, that is, unless Jackson moves to the Point Forward replacing Baron Davis and Monta Ellis. I also think that the team falling apart will affect both players and they’re too similar to both put up big numbers.

*Z-Bo is a 20-10 caliber player, but his blocks are despicable. Last year he played 2,244 minutes, and got only 16 blocks. Horrible.

*Richard Jefferson is not happy playing in Milwaukee.

*Tayshwan Prince has to watch his back with all the young talent on the Pistons bench. He’s a great guy to have on the floor, but won’t be asked to put up numbers, only facilitate for his teammates.

*Peja led the lead in 3-point shots last year, but his constant injury issues make him a great WW prospect.

*T-Mac, no idea how many games he’ll miss, so I’d put him in WW territory for now.

Sleepers

*Matt Barnes was just given the starting 3 in Phoenix, in order to save Grant Hill for the playoffs.

*Similar story in Chicago for Ty Thomas, who will be starting at the 4.

*John Salmons is going to be asked to do a lot more on offense this year, since the Kings don’t have many scoring options after Kevin Martin.

*David Lee might be eligible for two positions and is also having a good time playing for D’Antoni.

*Ditto for Wilson Chandler. I don’t know how long this will last, but if it continues, Chandler could be a 3-point stud. WW

*Al Harrington is going to play a lot of minutes in Nellie’s system and has the green light to shoot when open. Since he’ll likely play the 5, he’ll be open a lot. WW

*Mike Miller might not be a sleeper to some, but there’s been very little hype about him and he’s a great fantasy player.

*Bobby Simmons, will have a ton of minutes this year for the Nets, hopefully he makes good use of them.

Centers

Keep in mind, a bunch of the forwards above are also eligible at Center. In fact, most of them

Cream of the Crop

*Dwight Howard, only know that you’re basically giving up on the FT% category.

*Amare is the hot name this year for #1 center, but I just can’t forget his multiple knee surgeries. If you don’t want to worry about which day you’ll hear Amare needs to get his knee drained, then you might want to let someone else draft him. He’ll put up monster numbers, but for how long?

Bright Spots

*Yao Ming is the perfect Fantasy player. Points, Boards, Blocks, FG%, and amazing FT%. If he can stay on the court, he’ll be a top 3 Fantasy player. If he shows signs of fatigue early, trade him.

*People are worried about Jermaine O’Neal’s health, but I say he was healthy last year and just didn’t want to play. Expect 17 points 10 boards and 2 blocks. Not too shabby.

*Rasheed Wallace is one of those players, that if motivated, is a top 5 Fantasy stud. He gets you valuable steals, blocks and 3’s on top of his points and rebounds.

*Greg Oden wants to make a splash early, and I expect him to.

*Andrew Bynum is back and is playing for a contract. His selfishness might cause the team chemistry issues, but it’ll help your fantasy squad. Before he got hurt, he was leading the league in FG%

*Memet Okur has great range for a big man, and at the end of last season was playing great.

*I surprised myself when I put Drew Gooden on this list, but he will get a ton of run and should get some easy buckets.

*I think Chris Kaman will have another big year, but it will depend on how much time Camby plays.

*Andres Biedrens doesn’t put up a lot of numbers, but is super efficient, finishing the year with the best FG%

*Tyson Chandler had too great of a season last year to repeat that success. I think that makes him overrated this year.

Pessimistic

*Ronnie Turiaf is supposed to get a lot of minutes in Golden State, I just don’t see it happening his first year with the team

*Marcus Camby, injury waiting to happen. WW for sure for blocks.

*Nene (see: Camby, Marcus)

*With talks that LeBron will play more at the 4 this year, I think Ben Wallace will barely be used

*Kwame Brown, stay way.

Sleepers

*The Lopez twins looked great this preseason. When Shaq can’t be on the floor, Robin Lopez will fit in nicely in Terry Porter’s system. In New Jersey, foresee him being the young big of choice to develop, so he’ll get a lot of run.

*Al Horford is not being talked about much, but he gets a ton of minutes and was close to a nightly double double last year.

1 Comments:

David said...

Dmiz, how bout analyzing ur team? The average height of guys u drafted was 5'11